Warriors vs. Celtics odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, April 17 predictions from model on 95-59 roll

The Boston Celtics welcome the Golden State Warriors to TD Garden on Saturday night. The Celtics will look to keep a five-game winning streak alive, with their recent play improving their record to 30-26 this season. The Warriors are on a four-game winning streak of their own, reaching the .500 mark at 28-28 in 2020-21. Kelly Oubre (wrist) is listed as questionable to play for the Warriors, with Eric Paschall (hip) and James Wiseman (knee) ruled out. Robert Williams (knee), Jaylen Brown (non-COVID illness) and Evan Fournier (protocols) are out for the Celtics.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET in Boston. The latest Warriors vs. Celtics odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Boston as a four-point favorite. The over-under for total points is set at 227.5. Before finalizing any Celtics vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up over $1,100 on its top-rated picks this season, and dating back to last year, it entered Week 17 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 95-59 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Celtics. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors:

• Warriors vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -4
• Warriors vs. Celtics over-under: 227.5 points
• Warriors vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -165; Warriors +145
• GSW: The Warriors are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
• BOS: The Celtics are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State is keyed by one of the best players in the NBA in Stephen Curry, and he is enjoying a tremendous season. Curry is averaging 30.7 points, 5.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game, and he connects on 42.2 percent of his 3-point chances. He is the biggest reason why the Warriors are above-average in effective field goal percentage (54.4 percent), and Golden State is a gifted passing team, leading the NBA with 27.6 assists per game. 

The Warriors are stout defensively, allowing only 1.10 points per possession, and that includes the No. 4 mark in 2-point shooting allowed (51.3 percent). Draymond Green remains one of the top defenders in the league, and the Warriors create a turnover on 15.1 percent of possessions. Finally, Golden State makes life difficult on opposing passers, holding opponents to just 24.1 assists per game, the No. 8 mark in the NBA this season.

Why the Celtics can cover

Brown’s absence in this matchup certainly hurts, but the Celtics still have one of the league’s most talented wings in Jayson Tatum. Tatum is averaging 25.6 points per game to lead the team, and he adds 7.1 rebounds and top-flight defense. From there, Boston has some advantages predicated on Golden State’s weaknesses. The Celtics are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league, garnering 29.2 percent of their own missed shots, and Golden is a bottom-tier defensive rebounding team, allowing opponents to secure nearly 28 percent of their misses. 

Boston should also be able to create free throw attempts against a Golden State team that is second-worst in the NBA in keeping opponents off the charity stripe. On the other end, the Warriors are dead-last in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (22.1 percent) and worse than league average in turnover rate (14.4 percent). That combination leads to a potential possession advantage for the Celtics, and they are built to take advantage.

How to make Celtics vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 219 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 95-59 roll on NBA picks.